THEORY AND METHOD OF MONITORING AND EARLY WARNING FOR SUDDEN LOESS LANDSLIDE—A CASE STUDY AT HEIFANGTAI TERRACE
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摘要: 灌溉诱发的黄土滑坡大多数具有明显的突发性特征；斜坡破坏过程变形量小，历时短，具有较大的危险性。由于此类黄土滑坡加速变形阶段经历时间较短，GNSS系统和裂缝计等传统监测手段难以获取加速变形阶段系统完整的监测数据，更难以提前预警。针对这一难题，自主研发了自适应智能变频裂缝仪，它能够根据滑坡变形快慢自动调整采样频率。基于获取的黑方台多个突发型黄土滑坡的全过程变形-时间曲线，对这些变形曲线特征和规律进行分析研究，建立了针对性的黄土滑坡综合预警模型。将变形速率阈值和改进切线角作为滑坡预警的重要指标，建立了4级预警判据，通过自主研发的“地质灾害实时监测预警系统”实现滑坡的实时自动预警，并将预警信息与当地的群防群测信息平台对接，为防灾应急避让提供直接依据。2017年以来已先后6次对黑方台黄土滑坡实施成功预警，避免了重大人员伤亡，取得显著的防灾减灾效果。Abstract: Most of the loess landslides induced by irrigation own obvious sudden characteristics. The deformation and displacement during slope failure process are small and the time of duration is short, which is of great risk. Due to such loess landslides undergo a short time in accelerated deformation stage, it is difficult for traditional monitoring methods, such as GNSS system and crack gauge, to obtain complete monitoring data in accelerated deformation stage and to predict the sudden landslide occurrence. With respect to this problem, a self-adaptive frequency conversion acquisition monitoring method is designed to monitor the deformation of sudden loess landslides, which adjust automatically the frequency sampling according to the speed of landslide deformation. To meet the needs for risk mitigation and management of slope sudden failure, it is of practical significance to develop a self-adaptive frequency conversion acquisition monitoring method and establish a real-time automatic early warning system. The new artificial intelligence by the authors' institute can obtain entire monitoring data in accelerated deformation stage and to predict the sudden failure occurrence time. Taking deformation rate threshold and the improved tangent angle as the early warning parameters of comprehensive warning model, a four-level early warning criterion is established. The real-time automatic early warning of the landslide is realized through the self-developed "real-time monitoring and early warning system of geological hazards". The early warning information is released in the local group defense information platform, which provides a direct gauge for disaster prevention and emergency avoidance. Since 2017, it has been successfully warned six times of loess slope sudden failure on the Heifangtai terrace, which avoided heavy casualties and achieved remarkable disaster prevention and mitigation effect.
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Key words:
- Real-time monitoring /
- Early warning /
- Sudden landslide /
- Loess landslide /
- Early warning criterion
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图 2 黑方台地区黄土滑坡分布和监测系统布置
a.黄土滑坡和监测设备分布；b.研究区典型剖面
Figure 2. Loess distribution and monitoring systems logout on the Heifangtai terrace
图 3 研究区典型突发型黄土滑坡和监测设备布置图
a.党川段；b.焦家段；c.磨石沟段
Figure 3. Typical sudden loess landslide and logout of monitoring systems in the three section
图 4 自适应智能变频裂缝仪的组成及监测数据
a.自适应智能变频裂缝仪监测站；b.一体化自适应智能变频裂缝仪；c.自适应调整采样频率示意图
Figure 4. Components of the improved self-adaptive crack gauge and monitoring data
图 5 第1次成功监测数据不同去噪方法对比分析
a.匀速变形阶段对比分析；b.全变形过程对比分析；c.融合两种方法滤波监测数据；d.融合两种方法加速度变形阶段累计位移-时间曲线
Figure 5. Comparison and analysis of different filtering methods for monitoring data of CJ8# in the Heifangtai area
图 6 黑方台突发型黄土滑坡典型变形曲线特征
a.党川3#滑坡裂缝计1#匀速变形阶段累计位移-时间曲线；b.陈家8#滑坡裂缝计5#监测的加速阶段累计位移-时间曲线
Figure 6. Typical deformation curve characteristics of sudden loess landslide on the Heifangtai terrace
图 7 陈家8#裂缝计7#监测的累计位移、切线角、变形速率和变形速率增量变化规律
a.全过程累计位移-时间曲线；b.加速度阶段累计位移-时间曲线
Figure 7. Incremental variation of cumulative displacement, tangent angle, deformation rate and deformation rate of CJ8#monitored by LFJ7#
图 8 预警系统警报发布流程(Huang et al., 2015)
Figure 8. Alert publishing flow of the early warning system
图 9 自2017年以来6次成功预警黑方台黄土滑坡分布图
Figure 9. Six times successful early warning of sudden loess landslides since 2017
图 11 党川4#滑坡累计位移-时间、变形速率、变形速率增量和切线角曲线及预警过程
a.变形全过程监测曲线；b.中加速阶段和临滑阶段监测曲线(局部放大)
Figure 11. Cumulative displacement-time, deformation rate, increment of deformation rate and tangent angle curve and early warning process of DC4# Landslide
表 1 基于变形速率阈值和变形过程综合预警判据
Table 1. Comprehensive early warning model based on deformation rate threshold and deformation process
变形阶段 初始变形阶段 匀速变形阶段 初加速阶段 中加速阶段 临滑阶段 预警指标 第1步 变形速率/V V < V1 V1≤V < V2 V2≤V < V3 V≥V3 变形速率增量/ΔV ΔV < 0 ΔV≈0 ΔV>0 第2步 切线角/a a < 45° a ≈45° 45° < a < 80° 80°≤a < 85° a≥85° 危险性预警级别 — 
其中，V1=3mm·d-1，V2=10mm·d-1和V3=20mm·d-1 
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表 2 党川4#突发型黄土滑坡成功预警的过程
Table 2. Successful early warning process for the DC4# sudden loess landslide
预警时间 预警判据 预警等级 应急处理 切线角a
/(°)变形速率V
/mm·d-1速率增量ΔV
/mm·d-12017-8-26 15：00 64.57 3.36 0.038 注意级 以短信、微信形式给专家、镇政府及相关人员发布蓝色预警信息，每天检查数据，每周发布监控公告 2017-9-26 21：00 76.92 10.30 0.104 警示级 以短信、微信形式给专家、镇政府及相关人员发布黄色预警信息，每天检查数据，每周发布监控公告，群防群测人员加密监测 2017-9-30 05：00 82.44 20.14 0.349 警戒级 以短信、微信、电话形式给专家、镇政府及相关人员发布橙色预警信息，每天24 h进行连续的综合监测和全面检查，专家磋商和讨论滑坡发展态势 2017-9-30 17：50 85.08 30.62 0.462 警报级 以短信、微信、电话形式给专家、镇政府及相关人员发布红色预警信息；更频繁地检查数据，主干道封闭，当地人员被通知，进行24 h全面监测，专家磋商和讨论滑坡发展态势 2017-9-30 20：55 87.33 62.07 1.592 以电话方式正式向镇政府及相关人员发布红色预警信息，当地政府采用必要的紧急疏散和快速应急工作
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