Review of explosive yield estimation
-
摘要: 利用地震学方法估算爆破当量,一直以来都是地震学研究的难点之一。影响当量估算的因素很多,如震源特征、事件埋深、传播路径、能量衰减、地壳结构的不均匀性,等等。想要精确估算特定事件的当量,除了要克服以上各种困难外,还需选择合适的当量经验公式。当量与事件所释放的能量直接相关,震级在一定程度上可以反映能量的大小。目前使用的当量估算公式主要是震级-当量关系公式,其中,有利用体波震级、面波震级以及尾波估算当量的,各有利弊。本文的主要目的是总结目前存在的当量估算公式,并对其影响因素做简单分析。重点描述地下核试验当量估算,汇总了历次朝鲜核试验的信息。Abstract: Yield estimation of explosions using seismic methods is always a difficult problem in seismology. There are many factors that can affect the result of yield estimation such as source characteristics, depth of burial, propagation path, attenuation, variation of the crustal structure and so on. An accurate yield estimation needs a suitable relationship which is always empirical and must solve the problems mentioned above. Yield is directly related to the power released by the events that somewhat can be expressed with magnitude. Magnitude-yield estimation relationship is commonly used in yield estimation including body-wave magnitude, surface-wave magnitude and coda wave magnitude, each has its advantages and disadvantages. The main purpose of the paper is to summarize the existing yield estimation relationships and make a simple analysis on interference factors. We focus on the description of underground nuclear explosions’ yield and summarize the information of North Korea underground nuclear explosions.
-
表 1 朝鲜5次核试验基本资料
事件 纬度/°N 经度/°E 相对位置 作者 2006-10-09T01:35:29.900 41.263 8 129.085 9 卫星图象 Rodgers等[72] 2006-10-09T01:35:28.000 41.287 4 129.108 3 Wen等[73] 2006-10-09 41.286 7 129.090 2 Murphy等[74] 2009-05-25 41.275 0 129.089 0 09 to 06:0.4 km north,1.8 km west Selby[75] 2009-05-25T00:54:43.180 41.293 9 129.087 1 09 to 06:723 m north,2235 m west Wen等[73] 2009-05-25T00:54:45.300 41.292 5 129.065 7 09 to 06:0.5 km north,2.3 km west Murphy等[74] 2009-05-25T00:54:43.110 41.293 6 129.077 0 Zhao等[76] 2009-05-25 09 to 06:503 m north,2589 m west 潘常周等[77] 2013-02-12T02:57:51.331 41.290 8 129.076 3 13 to 09:345 m south,453 m west Zhang等[42] 2013-02-12T02:57:51.270 41.292 3 129.072 7 13 to 09:125 m south,360 m west Zhao等[76] 2013-02-12 13 to 09:257 m south,385 m west 潘常周等[77] 2016-01-06 41.298 0 129.071 5 1601 to 13:800 m north,400 m west http://seis.ustc.edu.cn/News/201601/t20160106_234889.html 2016-01-06T01:30:00.970 41.300 3 129.067 8 1601 to 13:900 m north,500 m west Zhao等[78] 2016-09-09 41.298 5 129.078 0 http://seis.ustc.edu.cn/News/201609/t20160909_253322.html 表 2 朝鲜5次核试验研究成果
事件 震级 深度/m Y/kt 误差 作者 2006 0.2~2 Pg/Lg、Pn/Lg幅值比 Koper等[80] mb(Lg)=3.93 0.48 大于2 Hz的Pg/Lg,Pn/Lg Zhao等[88] 0.6~1.7 Schlittenhardt等[82] mb(Lg)=4.32±0.13;MS=2.88±0.11 200 1.22 3~11 Hz的Pg/Lg幅值比 Chun等 [83] 20~300 0.2~0.8 Pasyanos等[84] MS=2.93±0.19 0.42~3.17 范娜等[81] MS=2.93±0.20 200 0.9 mb-MS识别失效 Murphy等[74] 2009 3.45~6.36 Kim等[89] MW=4.5,mb=4.6±0.1;MS=3.6±0.1 mb-MS判据失效;大于4 Hz的Pn/Lg比有效 Shin等[90] mb=4.86±0.13;MS= 3.52±0.16 550 6.51 3~11 Hz的Pg/Lg幅值比 Chun等[83] 70~600 1~5 Pasyanos等[84] mb(Lg)=4.53 2.35 mb-MS失效 Zhao等[43] MS=3.66±0.10 550 4.6 Murphy等[74] MS=3.62±0.21 2.06~15.53 范娜等[81] mb(Lg)=4.53±0.12 7.0±1.9 Pg/Lg比值识别 Zhang等[42] 2013 mb(Lg)=4.91±0.22 7.47 大于2 Hz的P/S幅值比 Zhao等[76] mb(Lg)=4.89±0.14 12.2±3.8 Zhang等[42] 2016-01 mb(Lg)=4.7±0.2 4(误差范围2~8 kt) Zhao等[78] 2016-01 11.3±4.2 http://seis.ustc.edu.cn/News/201601/t20160106_234889.html 2016-09 17.8±5.9 http://seis.ustc.edu.cn/News/201609/t20160909_253322.html 2016-09 6(误差范围为3~12 kt) http://www.igg.cas.cn/xwzx/kyjz/201609/t20160910_4660761.html 表 3 CENC和USGS关于朝鲜5次核试验的研究成果
机构 事件 纬度/°N 经度/°E 震级 2006-10-09T09:35:26.7 41.30 129.10 M4.0 2009-05-25T08:54:45.3 41.30 129.00 M4.5 CENC 2013-02-12T10:57:52.8 41.30 129.00 M4.9 2016-01-06T09:30:01.9 41.30 129.10 M4.9 2016-09-09T08:30:00.0 41.40 129.10 M5.0 2006-10-09T01:35:28.02(UTC) 41.294 129.094 mb4.3 2009-05-25T00:54:43.12(UTC) 41.303 129.037 mb4.7 USGS 2013-02-12T02:57:51.30(UTC) 41.308 129.076 mb5.1 2016-01-06T01:30:02.00(UTC) 41.305 129.039 mb5.1 2016-09-09T00:30:01.89(UTC) 41.298 129.015 mb5.3 -
[1] Mueller R A,Murphy J R. Seismic characteristics of underground nuclear detonations[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,1971,61(6):1675-1692 [2] Bache T C, Barker T G, Rimer N, et al. The contribution of two-dimensional source effects to the far-field seismic signatures of underground nuclear explosions, SSS-R-80-4569[R]. S-Cubed, La Jolla, California, 1980 [3] Cherry J T, Rimer N, Wray W O. Seismic coupling from a nuclear explosion: the dependence of the reduced displacement potential on the non-linear behavior of near source rock environment, SSS-R-76-2742[R]. S-Cubed, La Jolla California, 1975 [4] Day S M,Rimer N,Cherry J T. Surface waves from underground explosions with spall:analysis of elastic and nonlinear source models[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,1983,73(1):247-264 [5] Larson D B. Explosive energy coupling in geologic materials[J]. Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci.,1982,19(4):157-166 [6] Aki K,Bouchan M,Reasenberg P. Seismic source function for an underground nuclear explosion[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,1974,64(1):131-148 [7] Helmberger D V,Haley D M. Seismic source functions and attenuation from local and teleseismic observations of the NTS events JORUM and HANDLEY[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,1981,71(1):51-67 [8] Murphy J R. Seismic source functions and magnitude determinations for underground nuclear detonations[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,1977,67(1):135-158 [9] Von Seggern D H,Blandford R R. Source time function and spectra for underground nuclear explosions[J]. Geophys. J.,1972,31(1-3):83-97 [10] Bache T C,Barker T G,Blake T R,et al. An explanation of the relative amplitudes of the teleseismic body waves generated by explosions in different test areas at NTS[J]. Systems,Science and Software Final Report Submitted to Defense Nuclear Agency,DNA F,1975,3958 [11] Bache T C,Day S M,Swanger H J. Rayleigh wave synthetic seismograms from multi-dimensional simulations of underground explosions[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,1982,72(1):15-28 [12] Cleary J R. Anomalous Rayleigh waves from presumed explosions in East Kazakh[M]//Identification of Seismic Sources-Earthquake or Underground Explosion. Springer Netherlands, 1981: 191-199 [13] Day S M, Cherry J T, Rimer N, et al. Nonlinear modeling of tectonic release from underground explosions[R]. S-cubed La Jolla Calif., 1982 [14] Goforth T B, Rafipour and Herrin E. Anomalous Rayleigh waves from nuclear explosions at the USSR Shagan river test site, Southern Methodist University Technical Report to AFOSR[R]. Dallas, Texas, 1982 [15] Marshall P D,Springer D L,Rodean H C. Magnitude corrections for attenuation in the upper mantle[J]. Geophys. J. Int.,1979,57(3):609-637 [16] North R G,Fitch T J. Surface wave generation by underground nuclear explosions[J]. Geophys. Res.,1983 [17] Oliver J,Pomeroy P,Ewing M. Long-period seismic waves from nuclear explosions in various environments[J]. Science,1960,131(3416):1804-1805 [18] Rygg E. Anomalous surface waves from underground explosions[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,1979,69(6):1995-2002 [19] Aki K,Tsai Y B. Mechanism of Love-wave excitation by explosive sources[J]. J. Geophys. Res.,1972,77(8):1452-1475 [20] Archambeau C B. The theory of stress wave radiation from explosions in prestressed media[J]. Geophys. J. Int.,1972,29(3):329-366 [21] Bache T C. The effect of tectonic stress release on explosion P-wave signatures[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,1976,66(5):1441-1457 [22] Springer D L. Secondary sources of seismic waves from underground nuclear explosions[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,1974,64(3-1):581-594 [23] Viecelli J A. Spallation and the generation of surface waves by an underground explosion[J]. J. Geophys. Res.,1973,78(14):2475-2487 [24] Aki K. Attenuation and scattering of short-period seismic waves in the lithosphere[M]//Identification of Seismic Sources-Earthquake or Underground Explosion. Springer, Netherlands, 1981: 515-541 [25] Der Z A,McElfresh T W,O'Donnell A. An investigation of the regional variations and frequency dependence of anelastic attenuation in the mantle under the United States in the 0.5-4 Hz band[J]. Geophys. J. Int.,1982,69(1):67-99 [26] Bache T C, Lambert D G. The seismological evidence for the triggering of block motion by large explosions[R]. Systems Science and Software, La Jolla Calif., 1976 [27] Cherry J T, Bache T C, Patch D F. The Teleseismic Ground Motion Generated by a Nuclear Explosion Detonated in a Tunnel and Its Effect on the MS/mb Discriminant[M]. System, Science and Software, La Jolla Calif., 1975 [28] Toksöz M N,Kehrer H H. Tectonic strain release by underground nuclear explosions and its effect on seismic discrimination[J]. Geophys. J. Int.,1972,31(1-3):141-161 [29] Gupta I N,Blandford R R. A mechanism for generation of short-period transverse motion from explosions[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,1983,73(2):571-591 [30] Bache T C,Rodi W L,Harkrider D G. Crustal structures inferred from Rayleigh-wave signatures of NTS explosions[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,1978,68(5):1399-1413 [31] Minster J B, Savino J M, Rodi W L, et al. Three-dimensional velocity structure of the crust and upper mantle beneath the Nevada test site[R]. System, Science and Software, La Jolla Calif., 1981 [32] Basham P W,Horner R B. Seismic magnitudes of underground nuclear explosions[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,1973,63(1):105-131 [33] Springer D L,Hannon W J. Amplitude-yield scaling for underground nuclear explosions[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,1973,63(2):477-500 [34] Romney C. Amplitudes of seismic body waves from underground nuclear explosions[J]. J. Geophys. Res.,1959,64(10):1489-1498 [35] Nuttli O W. Seismic wave attenuation and magnitude relations for eastern North America[J]. J. Geophys. Res.,1973,78(5):876-885 [36] Nuttli O W. Yield estimates of Nevada Test Site explosions obtained from seismic Lg waves[J]. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth,1986,91(B2):2137-2151 [37] Dahlman O, Israelson H. Monitoring underground nuclear explosions[M]. Elsevier Scientific Pub. Co., 1977, 14(2): 29-87 [38] Springer D L,Kinnaman R L. Seismic source summary for US underground nuclear explosions,1961-1970[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,1971,61(4):1073-1098 [39] Springer D L,Kinnaman R L. Seismic source summary for U.S. underground nuclear explosions,1971-1973[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,1975,65(2):343-349 [40] Nuttli O W. Lg magnitudes of selected East Kazakhstan underground explosions[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,1986,76(5):1241-1251 [41] Patton H J. Application of Nuttli's method to estimate yield of Nevada Test Site explosions recorded on Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's digital seismic system[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,1988,78(5):1759-1772 [42] Zhang M,Wen L. High-precision location and yield of North Korea's 2013 nuclear test[J]. Geophys. Res. Lett.,2013,40(12):2941-2946 [43] Zhao L F,Xie X B,Wang W M,et al. Yield estimation of the 25 May 2009 North Korean nuclear explosion[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,2012,102(2):467-478 [44] Vergino E S,Mensing R W. Yield estimation using regional mb(Pn)[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,1990,80(3):656-674 [45] Denny M D,Taylor S R,Vergino E S. Investigation of mb and MS formulas for the western United States and their impact on the MS/mb discriminant[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,1987,77(3):987-995 [46] Draper N, Smith H. Applied regression analysis. Series in probability and mathematical statistics[M]. Wiley, 1981 [47] Ringdal F,Marshall P D,Alewine R W. Seismic yield determination of Soviet underground nuclear explosions at the Shagan River test site[J]. Geophys. J. Int.,1992,109(1):65-77 [48] Murphy J R. A new system for seismic yield estimation of underground nuclear explosions[C]//Proceedings of the 12th annual DARPA/GL, Seismic Research Symposium, Key West, Florida, 1990 [49] Murphy J R. Types of seismic events and their source descriptions[M]//Monitoring a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. Springer Netherlands, 1996: 225-245 [50] Bowers D,Marshall P D,Douglas A. The level of deterrence provided by data from the SPITS seismometer array to possible violations of the Comprehensive Test Ban in the Novaya Zemlya region[J]. Geophys. J. Int.,2001,146(2):425-438 [51] Ringdal F, Kremenetskaya E O, Asming V E, et al. Study of seismic travel-time models for the Barents region[J]. Semiannual Technical Summary 1 October 1996-31 March 1997, NORSAR Sci. Rept. 2-96, 1997, 97 [52] Stevens J L,Murphy J R. Yield estimation from surface-wave amplitudes[J]. Pure Appl. Geophys.,2001,158(11):2227-2251 [53] Bache T C. Estimating the yield of underground nuclear explosions[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,1982,72(6B):S131-S168 [54] Patton H J. Modeling Ms-yield scaling of Nevada test site nuclear explosions for constraints on volumetric moment due to source-medium damage[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,2012,102(4):1373-1387 [55] Ben-Zion Y,Ampuero J P. Seismic radiation from regions sustaining material damage[J]. Geophys. J. Int.,2009,178(3):1351-1356 [56] Bonner J L,Harkrider D G,Herrin E T,et al. Evaluation of short-period,near-regional Ms scales for the Nevada Test Site[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,2003,93(4):1773-1791 [57] Bonner J L,Russell D R,Harkrider D G,et al. Development of a time-domain,variable-period surface-wave magnitude measurement procedure for application at regional and teleseismic distances,Part II:Application and Ms-mb performance[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,2006,96(2):678-696 [58] Bonner J,Herrmann R B,Harkrider D,et al. The surface wave magnitude for the 9 October 2006 North Korean nuclear explosion[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,2008,98(5):2498-2506 [59] Sykes L R,Cifuentes I L. Yields of Soviet underground nuclear explosions from seismic surface waves:Compliance with the Threshold Test Ban Treaty[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,1984,81(6):1922-1925 [60] Woods B B. Regional surface wave magnitude and moment determination methods applied to nuclear explosions at the Nevada test site: implications for yield estimation and seismic discrimination[D]. California Institute of Technology, 1994 [61] Marshall P D,Basham P W. Discrimination between earthquakes and underground explosions employing an improved Ms scale[J]. Geophys. J. Int.,1972,28(5):431-458 [62] Rezapour M,Pearce R G. Bias in surface-wave magnitude Ms due to inadequate distance corrections[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,1998,88(1):43-61 [63] Murphy K R,Mayeda K,Walter W R. Lg-coda methods applied to Nevada Test Site events:Spectral peaking and yield estimation[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,2009,99(1):441-448 [64] Mayeda K,Hofstetter A,O'Boyle J L,et al. Stable and transportable regional magnitudes based on coda-derived moment-rate spectra[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,2003,93(1):224-239 [65] Mayeda K. mb(Lg Coda):A stable single station estimator of magnitude[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,1993,83(3):851-861 [66] Walter W R,Mayeda K M,Patton H J. Phase and spectral ratio discrimination between NTS earthquakes and explosions. Part I:Empirical observations[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,1995,85(4):1050-1067 [67] 赵连锋,王卫民,李娟,等. 利用相对静力学强度测定1998年5月11日印度核爆的当量[J]. 地球物理学报,2005,48(5):1092-1097 [68] Lay T,. Estimating explosion yield by analytical waveform comparison[J]. Geophys. J. Int.,1985,82(1):1-30 [69] Lay T,Burdick L J,Helmberger D V. Estimating the yields of the Amchitka tests by waveform intercorrelation[J]. Geophys. J. Int.,1984,78(1):181-207 [70] Murphy J R. Identification of seismic sources[M]//Husebye E S. Mykkeltveit S(eds). Earthquake or Underground Explosion. Reidel, Dordrecht, 1981: 201-205 [71] 林邦慧, 李大鹏, 王海军. 用CDSN的Lg波资料判别东哈萨克斯坦核爆并估计当量的研究[J]. 中国地震学会第六次学术大会论文摘要集, 1996 [72] Rodgers A J,Petersson N A,Sjogreen B. Simulation of topographic effects on seismic waves from shallow explosions near the North Korean nuclear test site with emphasis on shear wave generation[J]. J. Geophys. Res.,2010,115(B11 [73] Wen L,Long H. High-precision location of North Korea’s 2009 nuclear test[J]. Seismol. Res. Lett.,2010,81(1):26-29 [74] Murphy J R,Stevens J L,Kohl B C,et al. Advanced seismic analyses of the source characteristics of the 2006 and 2009 North Korean nuclear tests[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,2013,103(3):1640-1661 [75] Selby N D. Relative locations of the October 2006 and May 2009 DPRK announced nuclear tests using International Monitoring System seismometer arrays[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,2010,100(4):1779-1784 [76] Zhao L F,Xie X B,Wang W M,et al. The 12 February 2013 North Korean underground nuclear test[J]. Seismol. Res. Lett.,2014,85(1):130-134 [77] 潘常周,靳平,徐雄,等. 对朝鲜2006年,2009年和2013年3次地下核试验的相对定位[J]. 地震学报,2014,36(5):910-918 [78] Zhao L F,Xie X B,Wang W M,et al. Seismological investigation of the 2016 January 6 North Korean underground nuclear test[J]. Geophys. J. Int.,2016,206(3):1487-1491 [79] Kim W Y,Richards P G. North Korean nuclear test:Seismic discrimination low yield[J]. Eos,Transactions American Geophysical Union,2007,88(14):158-161 [80] Koper K D,Herrmann R B,Benz H M. Overview of open seismic data from the North Korean event of 9 October 2006[J]. Seismol. Res. Lett.,2008,79(2):178-185 [81] 范娜,赵连锋,谢小碧,等. 朝鲜核爆的Rayleigh波震级测量[J]. 地球物理学报,2013,56(3):906-915 [82] Schlittenhardt J,Canty M,Grünberg I. Satellite Earth observations support CTBT monitoring:A case study of the nuclear test in North Korea of Oct. 9,2006 and comparison with seismic results[J]. Pure Appl. Geophys.,2010,167(4-5):601-618 [83] Chun K Y,Wu Y,Henderson G A. Magnitude estimation and source discrimination:A close look at the 2006 and 2009 North Korean underground nuclear explosions[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,2011,101(3):1315-1329 [84] Pasyanos M E,Walter W R,Mayeda K M. Exploiting regional amplitude envelopes:A case study for earthquakes and explosions in the Korean Peninsula[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,2012,102(5):1938-1948 [85] Denny M D,Johnson L R. The explosion seismic source function:Models and scaling laws reviewed[J]. Explosion Source Phenomenology,1991:1-24 [86] Murphy J R., Kohl B C, Stevens J L, et al. Exploitation of the IMS and other data for a comprehensive, advanced analysis of the North Korean nuclear tests[M]//Proceedings of the 2010 Monitoring Research Review: Ground-Based Nuclear Explosion Monitoring Technologies. LA-UR-10-05578, 2010, 1: 456-465 [87] Murphy J R, Stevens J L, Kohl B C, et al. Supplemental analysis of the seismic characteristics of the 2006 and 2009 North Korean nuclear test//Proc. of the 33rd Monitoring Research Review: Ground-Based Nuclear Monitoring Technologies, 2011, 3: 513-523 [88] Zhao L F,Xie X B,Wang W M,et al. Regional seismic characteristics of the 9 October 2006 North Korean nuclear test[J]. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer.,2008,98(6):2571-2589 [89] Kim T S,Kang I B,Kim G Y. Yield ratio estimates using regional Pn and Pg from North Korea's underground nuclear explosions[J]. Geophys. Res. Lett.,2009,36(22):L22302 [90] Shin J S,Sheen D H,Kim G. Regional observations of the second North Korean nuclear test on 2009 May 25[J]. Geophys. J. Int.,2010,180(1):243-250 [91] Chi H, Kim G, Shin J, et al. Monitoring of the North Korea's 3rd nuclear test using regional seismic network[C]. AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, 2013