Prediction of the Forthcoming Employment Scale and Structure: A Perspective of International Comparison

Employment is the foundation for people's lives, the cornerstone for the stability of our country. To grasp the forthcoming trends of employment scale and structure not only helps understand the stage characteristics of economic development but also has guiding significance for making policy of employment, educational training and social insurance. The current employment of China presents a similar characteristics with later stage of industrialization of developed countries. But facing the combined influence from the violent changes of economy and population structure, impact of foreign demand and new technological revolution, the employment trends in China looks complicated and confusing. Through systematic and comprehensive comparison of the long-term employment growth and structure evolution of the developed countries, it shows similar stage features on both the trends of employment amount and the portion of employment among countries, which can provide relatively accurate reference for the prediction of total employment and structure in China. The increase of the total demand for new jobs is slightly lower than the increase of the employment post, so labor supply is still abundant in China; Employment proportion of the secondary industry remained stable and service industry is the main field of creating employment. The declining employment in agriculture is mainly offset by the increase of service industry. In the secondary industry, proportion of the construction industry will continuously increase, the manufacturing industry will stay stable and the excavating industry will decline. In the third industry, produce services will increase and life services will decline.